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NCT04460274 Clinical Trial

Forecast Number of Covid-19 Cases Worldwide

Covid-19 Clinical Trial

— Covid19TmeSer  

Official title:
Time Series Model For Forecasting the Number of Covid-19 Cases Worldwide - A Prospective Cohort Study

Clinical Trial Details — Status: Completed

Administrative data
NCT number NCT04460274
Other study ID # TurkishMOHITH-TimeSeries
Secondary ID
Status Completed
Phase
First received
Last updated
Start date December 31, 2019
Est. completion date June 20, 2020

Study information
Verified date July 2020
Source Turkish Ministry of Health Izmir Teaching Hospital
Contact n/a
Is FDA regulated No
Health authority
Study type Observational

Clinical Trial Summary

Coronavirus disease-19 (Covid-19) had an unprecedented effect on both nations and health systems. Time series modeling using Auto-Regressive Integrated Moving Averages (ARIMA) models have been used to forecast variables extensively mainly in statistics and econometrics. The investigators aimed to predict the total number of cases for Covid-19 using ARIMA models of time-series analysis.

Description:

Coronavirus Disease 19 (Covid-19) is an infectious disease initially defined in December 2019 before becoming pandemic. Respiratory disease is the main form of disease causing acute respiratory distress as the main cause of death.

Increased number of cases worldwide had put an enormous load on public health resulting lockdowns, quarantines and curfews. Predicting number of cases is hard as the increment of cases between communities differ.

Time series had been used in different fields of science to predict, such as signal processing, mathematical finance, weather prediction. In medicine, time series analysis were used in number of admitted patients to hospitals. Aim of this study is to predict the total number of Covid-19 cases worldwide using time series anaylsis.

Recruitment information / eligibility
Status Completed
Enrollment 7882471
Est. completion date June 20, 2020
Est. primary completion date June 15, 2020
Accepts healthy volunteers No
Gender All
Age group N/A and older
Eligibility Inclusion Criteria:

- Confirmed case of Covid-19

Exclusion Criteria:

- Cases not reported

Study Design

Related Conditions & MeSH terms

Intervention

Other:
• Model Building
Model building
• Model validation
Model validation

Locations
Country Name City State
Turkey Republic of Turkey, Health Sciences University, Izmir Bozyaka Education and Training Hospital Izmir

Sponsors (1)
Lead Sponsor Collaborator
Turkish Ministry of Health Izmir Teaching Hospital

Country where clinical trial is conducted

Turkey, 

Outcome
Type Measure Description Time frame Safety issue
Primary Number of Confirmed cases of Covid-19 December 31, 2019 to June 15, 2020
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