HIV Clinical Trial
Official title:
Public Health Targeting of PrEP at HIV Positives' Bridging Networks
This developmental research grant award (R21) requests funds to explore the feasibility and impact of a public health system PrEP intervention in a recently emerging HIV epidemic in Athens Greece. The investigators propose a modeling approach using an Agent Based Model (ABM) that moves beyond basic pathogen and transmission patterns to dealing with complex social interactions, including overlapping social and sexual networks as well as implementation realities, like finite PrEP resources, delayed linkage to PrEP care and early PreP care retention based upon empirically collected data in Athens Greece.
This developmental research grant award (R21) requests funds to explore the feasibility and
impact of a public health system PrEP intervention in a recently emerging HIV epidemic in
Athens Greece. As HIV epidemics in most settings globally have plateaued or are in decline,
emerging epidemics, re-emerging epidemics or outbreaks will become more common, particularly
when social, political or other "shocks" that impact HIV prevention resources occur. One well
characterized example is the recent epidemic among people who inject drugs (PWID) that
started in Athens following austerity measures in 2010. While some success in limiting the
epidemic within PWID has been observed, recent phylogenetic and surveillance analysis
demonstrates that the HIV strain from this most recent PWID epidemic (CRF35_AD, CRF14_BG,
subtypes A and B) has spilled over into MSM in 2013 (see Preliminary Studies).
In emerging epidemics, oral chemoprophylaxis is a commonly-used public health strategy to
prevent infectious diseases in susceptible persons. For example, among US and European MSM,
antibiotic prophylaxis for sex-partners in outbreaks of invasive meningococcal disease has
limited emerging outbreaks. Similarly, pre-exposure prophylaxis (PrEP) has the potential to
be used in emerging epidemics to prevent onwards HIV transmission. While this approach would
seem intuitive, current conceptualizations of PrEP implementation narrowly use a clinical
model focused on individualized intervention between health provider and client. This is
problematic because the public health impact of PrEP may be limited due to lack of proper
targeting. In fact, evidence from "real-world" PrEP use suggests that lower risk clients are
accessing PrEP. As compared to resource intensive clinical trials or demonstration studies,
careful modeling approaches can provide insight into who within a new HIV epidemic should be
targeted for PrEP to prevent onward transmission as well as the strategies used to identify
these individuals and link them to care. The investigators propose a modeling approach using
an Agent Based Model (ABM) that moves beyond basic pathogen and transmission patterns to
dealing with complex social interactions, including overlapping social and sexual networks as
well as implementation realities, like finite PrEP resources, delayed linkage to PrEP care
and early PreP care retention based upon empirically collected data in Athens Greece.
Specifically the investigators aim to: 1) Characterize a bridging MSM network (n=308) by
measuring individual-level risk factors, network-level connections, and HIV phylogenetic
clusters; 2) Measure early PrEP cascade outcomes (HIV testing, PrEP linkage to care) of a
sub-sample (n=50) of HIV uninfected MSM over the short term; and 3) Model the effects of this
targeted public health PrEP intervention on HIV transmission in Athens. Agent-based models
that account for empirical network structure are state-of-the-art in modeling HIV
transmission and are flexible enough to address fundamental questions of who should receive
PrEP and ultimately how a network-PrEP intervention can impact emerging/reemerging HIV
epidemics.
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