Influenza Clinical Trial
Official title:
Prospective Analysis of Seasonal Influenza - Viral Transmission and Evolution in the City of Basel, Switzerland [Prospektive Systemanalyse Der Saisonalen Influenza - Virustransmission Und Evolution in Der Stadt Basel] in German
Influenza associated illness has a global annual impact with high morbidity and mortality.
Transmission mechanisms and rates are under-investigated and overall poorly understood.
This project aims to use epidemiological tools to understand the transmission and evolution
of influenza viruses at an individual and population level within a small-scale city (Basel)
through a combination of experimental, clinical and mathematical advances. The investigators
aim to quantitatively characterize the viral transmission using novel
molecular-epidemiological tools based on whole genome sequencing.
In this prospective observational study, paediatric and adult outpatients presenting with
influenza-like illness will be enrolled at the emergency departments of the University
Hospital Basel (USB), the paediatric University Hospital of both Basel (UKBB), or a network
of family doctors (associated with Center of Primary Health Care).
The Clinical Trial Unit at the University Hospital Basel will coordinated the recruitment
process, collect data and sample all patients during the influenza season 2016/17. Samples
will be collected such as whole blood, serum and DNA, nasopharyngeal swamps to diagnose
influenza by polymerase chain reaction (PCR) assay and to determine colonization rates with
Staphylococcus aureus and Streptococcus pneumonia. All samples except the first
naso-pharyngeal swab for influenza diagnostics will be stored in a biobank and analysed in
batches. Each influenza virus isolate will be sequenced using a "whole genome sequencing"
approach. The viral transmission and evolution will be analysed using whole genome data for a
detailed molecular and phylogenetic tree analysis, respectively. The epidemiological and
geographical data will be incorporated into the phylogenetic model.
Specific aims are:
(i) to determine the impact of the most important epidemiological parameters, first focusing
on the age profile, followed by children per house hold, and population density, on influenza
transmission at an individual and population level, drawing on an analysis of baseline
humoral immunity and whole genome sequencing data, (ii) to understand the viral evolution
during seasonal epidemics, (iii) to develop dynamic mathematical models that are able to
predict viral transmission and evolution based on the retrospective results from (i) and (ii)
and to validate this model in future influenza seasons.
To realize the interdisciplinary approach, the investigators will rely on the expertise in
mathematical modelling of viral epidemiology and evolution and established geographical
expertise, next generation sequencing, clinical epidemiology, and immunologic diagnostic
techniques.
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