PrognostICate- Study:Prognostication of ICU- and Ventilator- Days Over the Next Years Until 2040

ICU Admission Clinical Trial

— PrognostICate  

Official title:

Prognostication of ICU- and Ventilator- Days Over the Next Years Until 2040 Using Statistical Projection Models and Retrospective Data From International Databases From 2005-2023 (PrognostICate- Study).

Clinical Trial Details — Status: Not yet recruiting

Administrative data

• NCT number: NCT06289075
• Other study ID #: 23-1096-retro
• Status: Not yet recruiting
• Start date: March 1, 2024
• Est. completion date: December 1, 2024

Study information

• Verified date: February 2024
• Source: University Hospital of Cologne
• Contact: Sandra Emily Stoll, DR. AP
• Phone: +491735697566
• Email: sandraemilystoll[@]googlemail.com
• Is FDA regulated: No
• Study type: Observational

Clinical Trial Summary

The Objective of our retrospective multicenter- study is to forecast ICU length of stay (ICULOS) and length of mechanical ventilation (LOMV) in ICU patients of different groups (regarding gender, age group, medical vs surgical admission) worldwide for the next years up to the year of 2040 using statistical forecasting models and historical, national and international ICU databases and population databases.

Description:

Adequate resource allocation in Intensive Care Medicine is especially challenging due to limited resources and increasing demands for ICU capacities due to an aging population and medical advances. Several studies in the past were trying to predict ICULOS using different models. The Objective and aim of our retrospective multicenter study are to forecast ICU length of stay (ICULOS) and length of mechanical ventilation (LOMV) in ICU patients of different groups (regarding gender, age group, medical vs surgical admission) worldwide for the next years up to the year of 2040 using statistical forecasting models.

To achieve this objective, we collect historical ICU data spanning from 2005 to 2023 from international ICU databases worldwide as well as population data from national and international databases and employ different statistical forecasting models (ARIMA-Model (Auto-Regressive Integrated Moving Average), logistic regression, Poisson Regression and ETS (Exponential smoothing)) to make these predictions. The Validity of the 4 different models is assessed with out-of-time-cross validity by splitting the data in 2 subsets for generation and testing of the model in a ratio of approximately 75:25 of the dataset. The most valid model of the 4 different models will be chosen. The statistical analysis follows he guidelines for Accurate and Transparent Health Estimates Reporting (GATHER Statement) von Stevens et al. from the year 2016.

The ultimate goal of this project is to provide valuable insights to healthcare system decision-makers worldwide regarding future requirements of ICU beds and ventilator capacities. With this insight we want to enable healthcare- system decision makers worldwide to proactively anticipate and allocate appropriate ICU resources for the future.

Recruitment information / eligibility

• Status: Not yet recruiting
• Enrollment: 10000000
• Est. completion date: December 1, 2024
• Est. primary completion date: June 1, 2024
• Accepts healthy volunteers: No
• Gender: All
• Age group: 1 Day to 120 Years

Eligibility

Inclusion Criteria:

• All patients admitted to an ICU between the years 2005-2023

Exclusion Criteria:

• Patients without ICU admission or ICU admission < 4 hours

Related Conditions & MeSH terms

• ICU Admission

Intervention

Other:
• Intensive Care Unit (ICU) treatment
ICU treatment

Locations

Country	Name	City	State
n/a

Sponsors (6)

Lead Sponsor	Collaborator
University Hospital of Cologne	Albert Einstein College of Medicine, Johann Wolfgang Goethe University Hospital, Monash University, Montefiore Hospital, The Alfred

Outcome

Type	Measure	Description	Time frame	Safety issue
Primary	Length of mechanical ventilation	Forecasting mechanical ventilation for the next 16 years	2005-2040
Primary	Length of ICU stay	Forecasting ICU stay for the next 16 years	2005-2040