Development and Validation of a Regional Multi-scale System for the Prediction of the Patient Flow in the Emergencies and the Need for Hospitalization

Hospitalization Clinical Trial

— PRED-URG  

Official title:

Development and Validation of a Regional Multi-scale System in Ile-de-France for the Prediction of the Patient Flow in the Emergency Department and the Need for Hospitalization

Clinical Trial Details — Status: Recruiting

Administrative data

• NCT number: NCT03051737
• Other study ID #: NI15018
• Status: Recruiting
• Start date: June 1, 2021
• Est. completion date: December 2023

Study information

• Verified date: March 2022
• Source: Assistance Publique - Hôpitaux de Paris
• Contact: Mathias WARGON, MD
• Phone: +33 1 49 83 10 86
• Email: m.wargon[@]ch-bry.org
• Is FDA regulated: No
• Study type: Observational

Clinical Trial Summary

The main objective of this retrospective study is to validate a prediction system of emergencies department (ED) attendance on a wide range of time and the need for hospitalization, at various levels of perimeter (with all emergency departments or one ED in particular), with all patients or with one sub-group of patients (age, gravity, care).

Description:

As secondary objectives, the study aims:

• to measure the influence of different factors as environmental or structural and to identify the modifiable factors, then to allow us to test by simulation, impact of various interventions (for example: opening of hospitals and reinforcement of ED teams) on arrival flows or regenerated tension inside ED teams.

• to study the relation between the flows (arrival patients, hospitalized patients) and the time of ED visit or the indicators of tension of ED team.

• Typology of ED in the region of Paris permitting afterward comparison the benchmarking type between similar structures.

This retrospective study will be performed on database: individual data in the region of Paris of summation of ED visits and data on the structures of health cares, as well as environmental data (principal given cares, weather, moves, circulations, pollution, strikes, vacations, etc.)

Recruitment information / eligibility

• Status: Recruiting
• Enrollment: 18000000
• Est. completion date: December 2023
• Est. primary completion date: December 2023
• Accepts healthy volunteers: No
• Gender: All
• Age group: N/A and older

Eligibility

Inclusion Criteria:

• All subjects have been recorded as patients in emergency departments between 2010 and 2015.

Exclusion Criteria:

• None

Related Conditions & MeSH terms

• Emergencies
• Emergency Department
• Hospitalization

Locations

Country	Name	City	State
France	Emergency Department - Bry sur Marne Hospital	Bry sur Marne	Val-de-Marne

Sponsors (1)

Lead Sponsor	Collaborator
Assistance Publique - Hôpitaux de Paris

Country where clinical trial is conducted

France, 

Outcome

Type	Measure	Description	Time frame	Safety issue
Primary	Prediction of emergency department visits	Calculated base on regional database: individual data of summation of ED visits in the region of Paris and structural data of health cares	throughout the study, an average of 18 months
Secondary	Prediction by age	By sub-group of child or senior	throughout the study, an average of 18 months
Secondary	Prediction by lever of gravity		throughout the study, an average of 18 months
Secondary	Prediction by type of care	By type : (medical, surgical or intensive) care	throughout the study, an average of 18 months
Secondary	Prediction by need of hospitalization or no		throughout the study, an average of 18 months
Secondary	Relation between flow of patients and indicator of tension of team		throughout the study, an average of 18 months
Secondary	Relation between flow of patients and time of ED visit		throughout the study, an average of 18 months
Secondary	Typology of ED of the region of Paris		throughout the study, an average of 18 months